TLDR
- Citigroup raised its Brent crude target to $120/barrel for the near term, up from $95
- Goldman Sachs lifted its Q4 Brent forecast to $90/barrel, nearly $30 higher than before the crisis
- The Strait of Hormuz closure has cut Persian Gulf crude transits to near zero
- Around 500 million barrels of cumulative supply have been lost since the conflict began
- Brent crude has rallied almost 50% since the conflict started in late February
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs have both raised their oil price forecasts after the Strait of Hormuz closure showed no signs of ending soon. Brent crude was trading near $108.50 a barrel on Monday, up about 3% on the day, and on track for a sixth straight daily gain.
Citi now targets Brent at $120 per barrel over the next zero to three months. The bank raised its average quarterly forecasts to $110, $95, and $80 for the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2026. Those figures compare to prior estimates of $95, $80, and $75.
Citi gives its base case a 50% probability. That scenario assumes the Strait begins to reopen by the end of May, one month later than the bank previously expected.
Analysts at Citi said the Iranian regime has both financial and strategic reasons to keep the Strait effectively closed for now. They argued this would tighten global oil supply, speed up inventory drawdowns, and push prices higher.
Citi estimates that roughly 500 million barrels of cumulative supply have been lost since the conflict began. If the Strait stays closed through May, the bank projects total losses could reach 1.3 billion barrels.
Goldman Sachs Raises Forecasts
Goldman Sachs also raised its oil price outlook on April 27. The bank now sees Brent averaging $90 a barrel in Q4 2026, up from a previous forecast of $80. Goldman says that figure is now nearly $30 higher than it was before what analysts are calling the “Hormuz shock.”
Goldman estimates that 14.5 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf crude production losses are driving global inventories to draw down at a record pace of 11 to 12 million barrels per day in April. The bank projects a deficit of 9.6 million barrels per day this quarter. Goldman now sees Brent at $100 this quarter and $93 in Q3.
Morgan Stanley Holds Steady
Morgan Stanley kept its own forecasts unchanged. The bank expects Brent to average $110 this quarter, $100 in Q3, and $90 in Q4. Morgan Stanley estimates Gulf oil exports have slumped by 14.2 million barrels per day due to the closure.
The bank said global stockpiles have dropped by an estimated 4.8 million barrels per day, with weaker demand accounting for part of the gap.
Citi’s bull case, which carries a 30% probability, sees Brent reaching $150 per barrel if disruptions last through the end of June. A super-bull scenario involving infrastructure destruction could push prices to $160–$180 per barrel on a sustained basis.
Global inventories are on track to reach their lowest levels in over a decade by the end of July under Citi’s base case scenario.
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