TLDR
- KeyBanc raised its Alphabet price target to $380 from $370, implying ~12% upside from Monday’s price.
- Analyst Justin Patterson says the market is underestimating Google Cloud’s growth trajectory.
- KeyBanc’s 2026 Google Cloud revenue forecast of $91.8B is 8% above Wall Street’s consensus of $85.3B.
- Q1 gross revenue is estimated at $107.7B, ahead of the Street’s $106.8B consensus, with results due April 29.
- Wall Street’s average 12-month price target sits at $385.97, with a consensus “Strong Buy” rating across 31 analysts.
Alphabet stock has been one of the stronger performers in April, up 19% through last Friday. But on Monday morning it pulled back 1.3%, even as fresh analyst support came in from KeyBanc.
KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson raised his price target on Alphabet to $380, up from $370. He kept his Overweight rating on the stock. At Monday’s price, that new target implies around 12% upside.
The core of Patterson’s argument is straightforward: Wall Street is not giving Google Cloud enough credit.
Patterson wrote that the consensus is underestimating the “Google Cloud ramp.” He sees the cloud business growing faster than most analysts expect over the next two years.
His 2026 revenue estimate for Google Cloud stands at $91.8 billion. The Street’s consensus is $85.3 billion. That’s an 8% gap — a wide one for a business of this size.
KeyBanc also lifted its overall revenue estimates for Alphabet. The 2026 figure goes up 3% and the 2027 estimate rises 5%, with cloud being the main driver of both revisions.
Google Cloud and AI Driving the Bull Case
On the AI front, Patterson said Alphabet’s investments are starting to translate into real revenue. He pointed to earnings per share approaching $14 by 2027 as one benchmark for the AI-led earnings lift.
The analyst also noted that search, while a more mature business, is still a “low-double-digit grower.” That’s a solid floor for Alphabet’s core revenue base.
Patterson’s capital expenditure estimate for 2026 sits at $182.8 billion, at the higher end of Alphabet’s own guidance range of $175B to $185B. That signals continued heavy investment in infrastructure.
For Q1 earnings, due April 29, KeyBanc’s gross revenue estimate is $107.7 billion. That’s slightly above Wall Street’s consensus of $106.8 billion.
Broader Wall Street View
It’s not just KeyBanc that’s upbeat. Among the 31 analysts tracked by TipRanks covering Alphabet, the consensus rating is “Strong Buy.”
The average 12-month price target across those analysts is $385.97, representing around 13% potential upside from recent prices. The most bullish target on the Street is $450.
The lower end of analyst expectations sits at $330 — still not far from current trading levels, suggesting limited downside in the consensus view.
Alphabet stock was trading down 1.3% Monday morning despite the upgraded target from KeyBanc. Q1 results are due April 29.
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