Both short-term and long-term holders are showing unusual conviction, holding through gains in a pattern that mirrors behavior seen after July 2021—just before BTC topped out near $69,000.
“This suggests there is still no widespread euphoria in the market,” Alphractal noted.
Rather than indicating exhaustion, this lack of profit-taking may point to a market still in its early enthusiasm phase, with many investors expecting significantly higher prices. Alphractal argues that in order for global sentiment to fully ignite, Bitcoin may need to push well above $110,000, possibly even to $140,000.
The data shows that the largest waves of profit realization in this cycle occurred during March–April 2024 and again from December 2024 to January 2025. Outside those windows, selling pressure has remained limited, with most holders opting to ride the trend rather than cash out.
Market Still Asleep?
This steady hand among investors implies that the market has yet to reach the typical “euphoria phase” that often signals a local or macro top. In fact, Alphractal suggests that the market has yet to fully “wake up” to the potential of the next phase, hinting at further upside.
If conviction continues to hold and institutional adoption deepens, Bitcoin could be poised for a second surge—not just in price, but in retail participation and mainstream sentiment.
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